According to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the resulting imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation will likely cause the Earth to heat up over the next century, possibly melting polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise, creating violent global weather patterns, and increasing vegetation density (IPCC, 2001). Data sets compiled from historical records provide the necessary information for model forcing, so ensuring that these data sets provide accurate, relevant information is key to producing realistic climate model scenarios. Solar physicists have issued a prediction that the sun may be entering a period of unusually low activity called a grand minimum. This merged data set, which has recently been made public, covers the period from 1978 to the present [Haberreiter et al., 2017]; it includes data for the UV, visible, and near-infrared bands. T. Dudok de Wit, B. Funke, M. Haberreiter, and K. Matthes
Several teams are actively working on this issue. Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth’s atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. In short: The Sun still has a lot to tell us. 24 December 2020, Research Spotlight
The uneven distribution of solar radiation on Earth’s surface drives atmospheric dynamics. With the help of the Sun's total and open magnetic flux and of historical records of sunspot numbers and other proxies of solar activity, it is possible to reconstruct not just the total irradiance of the Sun and its variation over the last couple of centuries, but also changes in the solar spectrum (in particular the irradiance in the UV) and in the cosmic-ray flux during this period. Space weather and terrestrial weather (the weather we feel at the surface) are influenced by the small changes the Sun undergoes during its solar cycle. There have been many arguments as to whether or not the eleven-year sunspot cycle affects our weather and climate. Res., 122, 5,910–5,930, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023492. Lilensten, J., T. Dudok de Wit, and K. Matthes (Eds.) 21 December 2020, Editors' Vox
The discovery of the effects of radiation in the ultraviolet (UV) wavelength band shattered this simple picture. The most energetic particles, known as galactic cosmic rays, have an extragalactic origin; their role in cloud formation has attracted strong media attention. Total solar irradiance changes, though of small magnitude, do appear to affect sea surface temperatures (SSTs), most obviously at latitudes where cloud cover is small and irradiance is abundant, such as the Northern Hemisphere subtropics during summer. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." Several empirical and semiempirical models have been developed for that purpose, and most match the observations well. Haberreiter, M., et al. Solar irradiance is the power per unit area received from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation as measured in the wavelength range of the measuring instrument. To overcome challenges with solar irradiance models, scientists need to piece together a record longer than the past few decades.To overcome challenges with solar irradiance models, scientists need to piece together a record longer than the past few decades. This new TSI composite should replace three existing ones whose differing trends have fueled fierce debates. Science Update. Calculating solar irradiance over time, or the average amount of energy your solar system may generate per day. All these quantities, which represent different paths by which the Sun could affect climate, are found to evolve in a very similar manner.
Based on Gray et al. J. Geophys. Solar irradiance is often integrated over a given time period in order to report the radiant energy emitted into the surrounding environment during that time period. So while the solar influence may have produced a broadly similar hydrologic response for many centuries, it now competes with potentially stronger perturbations. All weather on Earth, from the surface of the planet out into space, begins with the Sun. Space-based measurements, begun in 1978, indicate Earth receives an average of 1,361 W/m2 of incoming sunlight, and the amount varies by about one-tenth of a percent over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. 9 November 2020. Note: Eos is a source for news and perspectives about Earth and space science, including coverage of new research, analyses of science policy, and scientist-authored descriptions of their ongoing research and commentary on issues affecting the science community. To answer this question, we need to know how total solar irradiance received by the Earth is affected by sunspot activity. How—indeed whether—the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. The Sun is the main source of power for the Earth's climate machine. Model Dev., 10, 2,247–2,302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017. The impact of the solar cycle on precipitation in the model experiments arises from two different mechanisms, the first involving UV changes, the second total solar irradiance. Coinciding with the publication of the TOSCA handbook, scientists produced a data set describing solar forcing through SOLID, a European-funded project with worldwide contributions, which aimed at merging all exploitable SSI records into one single composite data set. Figure 2, at right. Here, too, we welcome community feedback for improving future versions. PDF documents require the free Adobe Reader or compatible viewing software to be viewed. What is now the way forward? http://www.cost.eu/media/publications/Earth-s-climate-response-to-a-changing-Sun, Drivers of Upper Atmosphere Climate Change, An Extraordinary Winter in the Polar North, The "Complicated" Complexity of Solar Storms. Compared to other stars, our Sun is a remarkably steady source of light and heat, but its output does vary. Observations, A Geologist’s Guide to Exploring and Understanding Iceland, Modeling the Creation of Cratons, Earth’s Secret Keepers, A Little-Known Mass Extinction and the “Dawn of the Modern World”, Network Connects Indigenous Knowledges in the Arctic and U.S. Southwest, “Towards a more complete assessment of the impact of solar variability on the Earth’s climate” (, An international team of scientists that met at the International Space Science Institute (. Over the time-scale of millions of years, the change in solar intensity is a critical factor influencing climate (e.g., ice ages). SOLID’s observational composite is a major first step toward improved versions, and we are now awaiting community feedback to determine if corrections should be applied and what they should be. It is looking at the Sun as we would a star rather than as a image. This helps warm that region via both short- and long-wave absorption. These efforts shared several common objectives, including better estimates of solar forcing and identifying and quantifying the uncertainties in these estimates. This data set, which runs from 1850 to 2015, includes solar radiative forcing using TSI and SSI reconstructions. Andersson, M. E., et al. Recent variations in SSTs due to other sources (such as greenhouse gases) appear to have minimized the mid-latitude response. This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years. The solar spectral irradiance is a measure of the brightness of the entire Sun at a wavelength of light. All these effects, however, are found to have a minor impact on climate in comparison to recent man-made global warming. Large solar installations affect global and regional climate by taking solar radiation and distributing it in a different manner than natural processes. All this evokes the important question of how sunspots affect the Earth's climate. Making accurate SSI observations is a real challenge: SSI measurements must be carried out from space.Unfortunately, the record of SSI observations is fragmented in time and in wavelength, even more so than TSI observations. The data set comes with recommendations on solar-induced ozone variations that are consistent with these solar forcing data, and it has been recommended for the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) initiative [Matthes et al., 2017]. This handbook was the main outcome of TOSCA, a pan-European COST Action (Cooperation in Science and Technology) network of scientists devoted to that question. On the few occasions when several instruments measured the SSI simultaneously, their observations often disagreed, which highlights the importance of calibrating the instruments and having several of them that operate simultaneously. This integrated solar irradiance is called solar irradiation, solar exposure, solar insolat It is the first to incorporate contributions from energetic particles such as magnetospheric electrons, solar protons, and galactic cosmic rays. Such analyses require records that extend over a long period of time, but the paucity of observations in existing records poses a serious challenge. Results show the percentage of the 1600 years of experiments during which solar maximum conditions produced increased (green) or decreased (brown) precipitation at different latitudes on the annual average. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. Most effects are ultimately driven and modulated by the solar magnetic field and its conspicuous solar cycle, which repeats approximately every 11 years. (Click for large JPEG or PDF.). The Sun powers life on Earth; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. Several international initiatives are working to stitch together data describing solar forcing of Earth’s climate. Similarly, increased carbon dioxide in the stratosphere has led to gradual cooling conditions, which affects the UV influence on the stratospheric circulation. It has been suggested that changes in solar output might affect our climate—both directly, by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and atmosphere, and indirectly, by changing cloud forming processes. Energetic protons produced during solar flares and energetic electrons that originate from the Earth’s magnetosphere have received much less attention, yet they may play a role by contributing to catalytic ozone loss in the polar atmosphere [Andersson et al., 2014]. Higher latitudes during Southern Hemisphere winter receive no such augmentation, and the increased latitudinal temperature gradient results in stronger stratospheric west winds. This downwelling has a tendency to extend into the troposphere, limiting convection and rainfall during Northern Hemisphere summer at these latitudes, producing drier conditions. The influence also seems to have been modified by global warming, and so its effectiveness may change with time. Researchers have shown that UV radiation affects climate through direct heating and the production and destruction of ozone in the stratosphere, which then leads to regional effects at Earth’s surface through a complex chain of mechanisms. For example, how does Earth’s surface temperature change if it receives more or less heat from the Sun? The recent and unusually long period of low solar activity that took place in 2008–2009, however, challenges our ability to reconstruct solar activity from proxies. The top panel shows the experiments which used climatological (unchanging) SSTs; here the influence comes primarily from the solar UV variations affecting the stratosphere. Additionally, recent studies of the effects of long-term solar irradiance changes on climate suggest that while the total solar output changes in the short term by 0.1%, changes in a specific narrow band of Extreme Ultraviolet Wavelengths (EUV) are of the order of factors of 10 or more. There is also a more substantial change in the ultraviolet (UV) portion of the solar spectrum, with direct impacts primarily in the stratosphere (above ~10km). Variations in solar irradiance may affect the Earth's climate through a direct influence on the global mean temperature or in more subtle ways. Their objective is to improve understanding of climate response to solar variability. TSI (W/m 2) is the total solar irradiance as compiled by the World Radiation Centre. The idea that sunspots affect Earth's climate is still largely debated, but it is believed that the increase of sunspots on the surface of the sun can reduce the amount of energy and light distributed to Earth. To w… The word "favoring" is used advisedly; in the experiments it is a "weighting of the dice", an increase in the likelihood of these effects while accounting for less than one standard deviation of the variability (a result found in observations as well). The current most accurate TSI values from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment ( SORCE ) is 1360.8 ± 0.5 W/m2 during the 2008 solar minimum as compared to previous estimates of 1365.4 ± 1.3 W/m2 established in the 1990s. Dr. David Rind. In addition, the solar-plus-ozone change leads to increased tropical stratospheric warming in the mid-to-upper stratosphere during solar maximum conditions. The increased SSTs then help intensify circulations spiraling away from the subtropics, again favoring reduced rainfall near the equator and to the south, as well as northern mid-latitudes. How accurately these models reproduce SSI before direct observations started remains a major open question. With our increased ability to monitor the sun, we are now aware that there is a small change in the total solar irradiance accompanying shifts from solar maximum conditions (with many sunspots) to solar minimum (with, basically, none). The solar irradiance is measured in watt per square metre in SI units. Our experiments show that the solar cycle influences tropospheric rainfall patterns in a manner consistent with some observations, with increased solar activity favoring precipitation north of the equator (for example, the South Asian monsoon) and decreased precipitation both near the equator and at northern mid-latitudes. This is generally considered to be a minor effect, as the measured amplitudes of the variations are too small to have significant effect, absent some amplification process. Total solar irradiance over the past three solar cycles, since 1975, varying between 1365 and 1367 W/m2. Commun., 5, 5197, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/ncomms6197. doi:10.1029/2008JD010114. In response to this more stable vertical profile for tropical tropospheric processes, tropical convection preferentially shifts off the equator, favoring monsoonal effects during Northern Hemisphere summer and on the annual average. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. It also influences Earth’s climate: We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the past ice ages. T. Dudok de Wit (email: [email protected]), Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l’Environnement et de l’Espace, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Orléans, France; B. Funke, Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Glorieta de la Astronomia, Granada, Spain; M. Haberreiter, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland; and K. Matthes, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research & Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Germany, Research Spotlight
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